Facing this new stage of stable old market and rapid development of new market, 2018 will surely evolve more differences in the big wave of intelligence like 2017. Micromotor World Network will review 2017 and look forward to 2018 through several key words, trying to summarize the development of the industry, as well as important events and trends for you, and hoping to analyze where the motor industry will go in the future for micromotor enterprises that continue to meet challenges during the period of great changes.
One. Three-dimensional view of the development of micro-motor industry
Micro-motor is a technology-intensive industry. China is the world's major producer and exporter of micro-motors. In 2015, global micro-motor shipments were 17.5 billion, with China's output accounting for 12.4 billion. In 2016, global shipments were 18.4 billion, with China's output accounting for 70.9 percent. Relevant experts predict that global micro-motor shipments will reach 23 billion in 2020, and China's output will account for 17 billion.
According to the micro-motor world network, the information industry will still be the most widely used micro-motor in 2017, accounting for 29% of the micro-motor usage. Household appliances followed, accounting for 26%; Weapons, aviation, agriculture, textile, medical treatment, packaging and other application fields accounted for 20%; 13% in the automotive field; Video processing accounts for 7%; Industrial control and others account for 5%. And intelligent, automation, information tide in the production, life in all areas of the promotion, micro-motor industry in 2017 development situation is how? To this end, micro-motor world network reporter specifically from the market, enterprise, technology three-dimensional start, to the industry to do a simple survey.
1. Difficult market development-low sales and poor profits
For the micro-motor market in 2017, most enterprises said that the market was in good condition. Compared with last year, the sales volume of micro-motors increased slowly, but the overall profit declined seriously.
Wolong Electric Group is one of the leading leaders in China's electrical machinery industry. Following the acquisition of European ATB, SIR and OLI, Wolong has implemented cross-border mergers and acquisitions again this year, taking over the electrical machinery business owned by General Electric Company of the United States. Now its micro-electrical products account for more than 20% of the domestic market.
However, Liu Pingyu, former chief engineer of Wolong Electric's R & D department, told reporters in an interview: "The overall development of the motor market this year is not very good. The fraudulent impact of new energy vehicles in 2015 continues to this day. In addition, the national policy introduced this year was too hasty and did not give the market, complete machine factories and supporting manufacturers time to respond and prepare. Everyone was caught off guard. Even some enterprises' models were either scrapped or revised, many detours have been taken for no reason."
Sun Qigang, project manager of Hangzhou Tongling Automation Co., Ltd., said: "This year our company's development is very good, the market is very hot, the whole market is relatively good. But due to the price of raw materials, this year's profits have become lower, but the sales are still good."
Liu Jiancheng, an engineer who once worked in Shanghai Electric Drive Co., Ltd., recalled: "the micro-motor market developed very well in 2017, but after watching several exhibitions this year, I found that the homogenization of domestic enterprises' products was particularly serious. No matter in function or performance, I didn't see anything innovative."
Dongchang Motor is mainly engaged in electric tool motors and has nearly 20 years of motor manufacturing and production experience. Xia shijun, an engineer in the development department of the company, said: "the development of the motor market this year is quite good. our company's sales of electric tool motors this year are almost the same as last year, with an output value of more than 28 million yuan. however, the market competition is quite fierce now. raw materials have been rising, and motors are sold to customers, but prices. We have a project to make a traditional series motor, with a total output value of more than 18 million yuan and a loss of more than 600,000 yuan. It is really difficult to do."
Zeng Wei, engineer of Xinbaoda Motor, recalled: "Our company's motors are mainly used on electric tools. The main advantage is to replace imported motors from Switzerland and other countries. There is a fixed order demand every month, and the monthly contract amount is about 100,000 yuan, which is in the middle reaches of the same industry. At present, the company has also set up a special foreign trade department to expand exchanges with the international community. The demand in these countries is relatively large. Although the degree of automation development in our country is still relatively low and the penetration rate is relatively low, we are very optimistic about the domestic power tool market."
2. Enterprise competition-price war intensifies.
Compared with the market, the competition among motor enterprises in 2017 can be said to be multiple bases in the four suburbs. Many engineers including Xia Shijun, Sun Qigang and Liu Pingyu all said that the competition pressure in the motor industry this year is particularly great, mainly from the pressure of manufacturers, peer enterprises and upstream and downstream manufacturers. Now almost all motor enterprises are fighting price wars.
Chen Hongyi, senior manager of Dongguan Guoliang Electric Co., Ltd., said: "the phenomenon of low-price competition among enterprises is serious, and there are many participants. Because everyone wants to get orders, they hold down prices with each other. In addition, the technology can not keep up with each other, and the competition among enterprises is becoming more and more fierce, and the situation of cutting corners is becoming more and more prominent."
Liu Jiacheng said: "At present, the competition among enterprises is very fierce, and the homogenization of products is serious. The rest is price PK, which leads to the closure of many enterprises. However, the closure of enterprises is not good enough. It is normal to close down. Market competition is more than product characteristics, performance and price. This is a market orientation. Only the survival of the fittest can buy good things."
According to the micro-motor world network, the peak number of micro-motor manufacturers in China was in 2010, with 1112. after several rounds of market reshuffle, it has stabilized at more than 900 in recent years. in October 2015, the number of domestic micro-motor and other motor manufacturers was 926, and this year, more than 20 motor enterprises closed down one after another.
Tang Guojun, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Research Control Automation Technology Co., Ltd., said: "Our company's stepping in the domestic use is relatively large, like traditional textiles, engraving, automation equipment and the like need to use motor products, this year's increase is relatively large, demand is increasing, but the overall profit has been falling. And companies are fighting a price war, and now only sales can make up for the decline in prices."
Lu Guopiao is a development engineer of Zhanglong Electric Co., Ltd. in Shunde District of Foshan City. He recalled: "Now the low-end market is fighting price wars, only fighting prices, and the competition is very fierce. The middle and high-end market is relatively better, but the competition is still fierce."
It can be seen that the price competition of motor enterprises in 2017 is becoming more and more fierce, and everyone wants to grab orders. However, due to the shortage of porridge and the limited technical level, the competition market of small and medium-sized motor enterprises in 2017 is still concentrated in the middle and low end.
3. Motor technology-highly integrated integration
A few days ago, the international market research organization MR released a report, estimating that global micromotor sales are expected to exceed US $40 billion in 2022, with a growth rate of 6.9 in 10 years. Among them, the demand for brushless DC motors will detonate the market. However, the technical difficulty of brushless motors is that the main control chip is foreign.
Xia Shijun said: "If we are in the field of power tools, the future will be more and more applied to brushless motor solutions, the controller is a semiconductor component, it is now the price down, the demand for brushless motors will be more and more. And now there are a lot of MCUs are also localized, if the price of MOS tube a little lower, we can weaken the advantages of Taiwanese enterprises, there will be more customers using brushless motors."
Sun Hualei of Suzhou Yigao Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Co., Ltd. said: "Our company makes EPS (Electronic Power Steering System) motors. Now more EPS systems use brushless motors. Brushed carbon brushes will wear out. Replace frequently."
Liu Pingyu told reporters that at present, it is not convenient to disclose the technical problems of their company, but in the future, it will definitely be highly integrated and miniaturized. In the later stage, the motor, reducer and electronic control will be highly integrated, which can effectively control the cost.
Liu Jiacheng said: "The integration of the motor controllers made by the Japanese is very high, and the design is very optimized. We can learn from them. However, with the current technological level, even if they can be designed, the quality and qualification rate of the production will be relatively low. The level, assembly and design of Japanese companies are better than those in China. If the motor is used, Beijing's refined electric motor is really very powerful, it's hard to be surpassed."
"However, I see that some concept machines made by some small companies are very advanced, not much worse than those made abroad. Our country should actively promote and support them." Liu Jiancheng added.
When making an overall evaluation of the development of the motor industry in 2017, the reporter found that the general interviewees were more satisfied with the development of the motor market this year, but for the competition of enterprises, the interviewees put forward several similar words: "tragic", "fierce", "profit decline".
An engineer of a company said to a reporter from Micromotor World Network: "This year gives me the feeling of' difficult' and 'miserable'. Order sales are rising, but profits have been falling. The company has not made any money, our year-end bonus is gone, the party is canceled, and double pay is gone. I will have a direct holiday until the middle of February. This year, it is very miserable!"
II. Three Key Words of Micro Motor Industry in 2017
1. Environmental supervision
Since the central environmental protection inspectors launched a pilot project in Hebei Province in January 2016, within two years, the central environmental protection inspectors have completed full coverage of 31 provinces across the country, accepted 135000 cases, involving nearly 50000 enterprises, and held more than 17000 people accountable. As an important part of the manufacturing industry, the motor industry has the same serious pollution problems in the production process, such as noise pollution, water pollution, dust pollution, etc., so motor manufacturers can not escape in this environmental supervision.
Zhejiang machinery manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of Zhejiang Province, with more than 2000 motor enterprises, and Huzhou alone accounts for 15% of the domestic market share. In this inspection, Zhejiang became the hardest hit area for environmental protection problems, ordered 1114 companies to rectify, and filed a case to punish 383 companies. Among them, many motor parts manufacturers were announced to stop production, limit production, and shut down due to water and soil pollution.
Chen Hongyi said: "This environmental protection inspection has also had a significant impact on motor companies, especially in terms of parts supply. The company's suppliers in Zhejiang have been affected by the inspection. The supply of parts is tight and the price of raw materials fluctuates. This more or less affects the normal operation of motor companies."
Xia Shijun recalled: "Under the influence of environmental protection supervision, the price of magnets has risen sharply. Our motors are mainly used in electric wrenches and electric drills. Customers also asked for price reduction. In the end, the profit became thinner and thinner. One of our projects was to make series motors, with a total output value of more than 18 million and a loss of more than 600,000."
However, Liu Jiancheng said that the development of motor enterprises this year will definitely be affected by environmental protection supervision, because the government has adopted a one-size-fits-all approach, and some enterprises can't bear it, either raising prices or going bankrupt directly, but this is temporary after all.
2. Rising prices of raw materials
When the reporter asked about the more profound events that occurred in the motor industry in 2017, Xia Shijun said: "The most profound impact on me is the price increase of raw materials." Under the severe situation of environmental supervision trend, the price rise tide is undoubtedly worse for some enterprises.
Many industry insiders said that the comprehensive procurement cost of motor raw materials has increased by 10%-20% this year. On the one hand, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, and on the other hand, the national new energy vehicle subsidy has been reduced. The off-board companies require motor companies to reduce prices by 20%-30%. Under the mutual squeeze of the two "forces", most motor companies are facing huge Cost control pressure, profit margins are greatly compressed.
A few days ago, 24 key motor companies, including Dayang Electric, Dadhe, once again raised prices collectively.
Liu Pingyu told reporters: "From this year's production and sales, it has not been affected, but because the upstream and downstream have been keeping prices down, the final profit is getting thinner and thinner. Now a lot of bulk materials, of course, the system materials will be better and slightly fall back to a position less than 500000 in 400000, and copper and aluminum have also returned accordingly, but in general, compared with March to April this year, there is an increase of about 15%-20%. On the whole, the price of electric motors has increased by 30%. However, the price of electric motor control, including some other supporting factories, is very low, that is, a 20% amount is directly cut off, and the total gross profit has dropped from the original 30 to about 25 now."
Liu Jiancheng said that the government's "one size fits all" forced companies to raise prices, but now this situation is temporary, and it may also be that someone is driving up prices."
3. Refund of new energy vehicles
Under the dual stimulus of policy support and financial subsidies, my country's new energy vehicles have entered the fast lane of rapid development in the past few years. According to data from the Automobile Association, in the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 639000 and 609000, an increase of 49.7 and 51.4 respectively over the same period last year.
Nowadays, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has become the sword of Damocles hanging on the heads of the participants in the new energy manufacturing industry and the upstream and downstream industrial chain. Recently, with the outflow of the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy draft, news that the new energy subsidy policy originally scheduled to be implemented in 2019 (down 20%) will be advanced to 2018 has swept the motor circle.
Sun Qigang said that if new energy vehicles are refunded, then the motor subsidy will also be gone. In addition, there will be too many sales this year, and it will definitely decline next year and the following year.
Liu Pingyu, chief engineer of Wolong, said: "I expect the production and sales volume of the whole new energy vehicle market to be between 900000 and 1 million units in 2018, and it will also be the market of logistics vehicles next year. As far as I know, the average provincial capital city will have at least 100,000 logistics vehicle market output. If all of this is switched to pure electric, there will probably be millions of vehicles in the country. Of course, the promotion efforts in different regions are different, and there may be a different development speed, but passenger cars, including buses, will also have a corresponding flux, but at present, due to some mileage and low market acceptance, its current trend has declined. So I am not very optimistic about passenger cars and commercial vehicles next year, but I am still optimistic about the logistics vehicle market."
"In addition, the national policy in 2018 is being adjusted and will come a little earlier than the 2017 policy, which gives the market, including the various partners, enough preparation time, basically seven months to punch this market, and that way, this market can grow particularly fast. I expect it to start in May 2018." Liu Pingyu added.
Liu Jiacheng said: "From a sociological point of view, state subsidies should be withdrawn. The needs of the people are a good market support, and there is no need for continuous support. Refunding or cancellation of subsidies will help weaken local protection. Everyone needs a level playing field. In addition, if intellectual property rights and patents are well protected, new products will continue to emerge. I see that some of the concept machines made by some small companies are very advanced, not much worse than those in foreign countries. The state should actively help them to do a good job in industry, give policy support and innovation support, and do not need too much subsidy."
Three. Prospect 2018
Micromotors are mainly used in traditional fields such as audio products, household appliances, and automobiles. China is the world's largest producer of small micromotors. In 2015, it produced 12.4 billion small micromotors, an increase of 6.0 year-on-year, and the global share was 70.9. It is estimated that the output of China's small micro-motors will be close to 17 billion units by 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate (2016-2020) of about 7.0.
Dechang Electric, Welling Holdings, Dayang Electric and Wolong Electric are the main micro-motor manufacturers in China, of which Dechang Electric, as the largest small micro-motor manufacturer in China, has annual sales revenue of more than US $1 billion, accounting for 4.3 per cent of the world in 2015.
In the future, with the gradual saturation of the traditional application market and the slowdown of demand, the main growth momentum of small micro motors will come from new energy vehicles, wearable devices, robots, drones, smart homes and other emerging fields.
Information industry: driven by market demand for smartphones and tablets. In the future, the traditional consumer electronics market is gradually saturated, and wearable devices will become a new growth point in the industry, which will continue to drive the growth of demand for small micro-motors. China's wearable device market is expected to grow by more than 25% in 2020.
3D Printing: According to the data of "The State of 3DPrinting 2016", the CAGR of industrial 3D printing will reach 44.22 in the next 3 years, and the market space will reach 30 billion US dollars. The latest analysis report of market research company IQ4 also points out that by 2022, the global medical 3D printing market will reach $3.89 billion billion.
Automotive sector: With policy support, the new energy vehicle market continues to maintain rapid growth. In 2020, the market growth rate of small micro-motors for new energy vehicles will be more than 40%, and the demand will exceed 0.15 billion units in 2020. Market research firm Reportlinker reported that the global automotive motor market will be worth $34.48 billion in 2022.
Market size of electric vehicle motor controller: Reportlinker, a market research company, recently released the "China EV (Electric Vehicle) Motor Controller Industry Report (2017-2020)". The report pointed out that the market size of China's EV motor controller is expected to climb to 28.1 billion yuan in 2020, with passenger cars dominating.
Injection molding market: the domestic plastic machinery industry can achieve an average annual growth rate of 10% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. It is expected that China's plastic machinery market will exceed 100 billion within 5 years, of which injection molding machines account for about 40%-50% of the output value, corresponding to a market space of about 50 billion yuan.
Robots: The global industrial robot market is growing rapidly and is expected to exceed 0.3 billion units in 2020, with a market value of US $3.3 billion billion. Research and Markets estimate that 90% of industrial robots in the future will use servo motors.
Liu Jiancheng said that in the future, the demand for motors in the automated production and robotics industries will be very large. Now manpower is expensive. Many industries rely on machines for equipment assembly. Cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan have the highest level of automation.
Consumer drones: In the future, with the gradual opening of low-altitude areas, China's drone market will usher in a period of rapid growth, with the consumer drone market growing at more than 50% in 2020. China's demand for servo motors in 2019 is expected to reach 737000 units.
Motion Control Market: MarketsandMarkets to the latest market research report, the global motion control market (including spare parts: AC motors, motors, motion controllers, AC drives, electronic drives; applications: packaging, material handling, metal processing, conversion, Positioning) is expected to reach $22.84 billion in 2022.
Power Tools: White Paper on China's Power Tools Market in 2016. At present, North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific are the three major markets in the world, accounting for 70% of the market share. Among them, the Asia-Pacific region is the fastest growing region in the world in manufacturing power tools. It is expected to exceed US $10 billion in the market size valuation in 2019, of which 70% comes from power tools.
Director Wang Ru of Dongchang Electric Co., Ltd. said that his company has been involved in the production of electric tools and motors for six or seven years, and its annual performance is about 30 million yuan. The independence of electric tools is relatively strong, and the market is also very large, but the domestic use of electric tools is relatively small, the penetration rate is relatively low, and the requirements for work efficiency will become higher and higher in the future, so this market space is very large.
In addition, emerging markets supported by policies such as smart homes, medical equipment, and automated laboratories will also maintain a rapid growth rate in the next few years, which can further stimulate the growth of demand for small micro-motors.
Attachment 1: Industry Review of Corporate Events
1. China HB stepper motor leading enterprises Mingzhi Electric successfully listed
On May 9, 2017, Shanghai Mingzhi Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. was successfully listed.
Mingzhi Electric's hybrid stepping motor, stepping motor driver and integrated intelligent stepping servo control technology are at the leading level in the world. It can be said that Mingzhi Electric is the absolute leading enterprise of HB stepper motor in China, and it is also the only national enterprise in China that can compete with Japanese, German and American enterprises in the international market.
The person in charge of Shenzhen Research and Control Automation Technology Co., Ltd., which also has a stepper motor business, said that the cost performance of stepper motors is relatively high. This year, the company's stepper sales volume is larger than that of servo motors. The successful listing of Mingzhi Electric can drive the progress of the whole stepper market.
2. Xinzhi Electric acquired Tianyu Changying, renamed "Changying Xinzhi" to enter the drone business.
On the evening of September 25, Xinzhi Motor announced that it plans to change its name to Changying Xinzhi. In August this year, it completed the acquisition of 49% equity of Tianyu Changying. This time, it plans to replace the previous motor label with Changying label.
Before the acquisition of Tianyu Changying's equity, the company realized a total operating income of 1.102 billion yuan in the first half of 2017, mainly from the motor business. In 2016, Tianyu Changying's operating income accounted for only 0.1 of the total operating income of Xinzhi Motor. This time, Tianyu Changying label with millions of operating income will replace the motor.
3. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved the implementation of the standard for asynchronous/permanent magnet synchronous drive motor systems for electric vehicles on July 1
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced and approved 426 industry standards, including two standards for electric vehicles, namely, asynchronous drive motor system standards for electric vehicles and permanent magnet synchronous drive motor system standards for electric vehicles. The implementation date of both standards is July 1, 2017.
Asynchronous drive motor system for electric vehicles: This standard specifies the requirements, test methods, inspection rules, signs and marks of asynchronous drive motor systems for electric vehicles. This standard is applicable to asynchronous drive motor systems for electric vehicles. Permanent magnet synchronous drive motor system for electric vehicles: This standard specifies the technical requirements, test methods, inspection rules, signs and marks of the permanent magnet synchronous drive motor system for electric vehicles. This standard is applicable to permanent magnet synchronous drive motor systems for electric vehicles.
China's first "ultra-rare earth" motor rotor successfully developed in Shengzhou
On July 7, Shengzhou Xinma Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. won a 10,000 yuan science and technology innovation voucher from Shengzhou Science and Technology Bureau. The company used ferrite formula materials to develop high-efficiency and energy-saving motors with high-efficiency and energy-saving motors. After testing by the national authoritative quality inspection department, all technical indexes are higher than those of similar rare earth rotor high-efficiency and energy-saving motors, becoming the first enterprise in the world to develop "ultra-rare earth" motor rotors and ultra-rare earth "high-efficient and energy-saving motors.
Attached 2. Industry Review of 2017 Motor New Products
1. Japan Seiko developed the world's first hub motor with gearbox
Foreign media reported that Japan's Seiko Corporation developed the world's first hub motor equipped with a mechanical gearbox. The motor is still in the prototype stage, and the company currently does not plan to commercialize the entire assembly, but only plans to bring some of the components to market.
In view of the diversification of drive systems and the increasing awareness of environmental protection, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), electric vehicles (EV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) have become the mainstream development trend in the industry. To this end, Japan Seiko focuses on the development of in-wheel motors (in-wheel motors), which can be used in various drive systems without being affected by the body structure. Now this product has attracted market attention and may even become the next generation Drive system. At present, a lot of research has been carried out on the practical application of this new technology.
2.Portescap launched a new low-cost brushless motor
On December 5, 2017, Portescap launched the 22ECP35 two-pole brushless DC motor, expanding their new Ultra EC series of brushless motors.
Compared with similar comparison motors, the 22ECP35 two-pole brushless DC motor provides more than 30% continuous torque and 100% power, which can obtain the correct balance between torque and speed in a compact short length without affecting brushless DC The smooth operation and long life of the motor. The 22ECP35 can be adapted to most applications in the medical and industrial markets.
3. Huichuan technology released a new generation of IPM motor products
In November 2017, Huichuan Technology released a new generation of IPM motor products, which will never demagnetize, have a long life, are economical and energy-saving, and are efficient and easy to use, which will create considerable economic and social benefits for the injection molding industry.
A new generation of IPM motor, special electromagnetic design, combined with the advanced performance algorithm of servo driver, maximizes the use of reluctance torque, has the characteristics of small loss and high efficiency, compared with the traditional surface-mounted rotor motor steady state, the surface temperature is 15 ℃ ~ 35 ℃ lower, the motor will never demagnetize, the environment adaptability is stronger, and the service life of the motor is greatly extended.